The Atlantic Breaks Its 20-Day Silence.
The unprecedented quiet in the Atlantic during what is traditionally the busiest part of the season finally ended at 5 a.m. EDT Sep. 17, with the formation of Tropical Depression Seven (TD 7) in the central tropical Atlantic. At 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD 7 to Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located about 1,085 miles (1,745 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving north-northwest at 22 mph (35 km/h). Top sustained wind were 45 mph (75 km/h), and the central pressure was 1006 mb.
Satellite images showed that Gabrielle was poorly organized, with a elongated center that was exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms confined to the east side of the center (see image at top) because of strong southwesterly winds creating high wind shear of 20-25 knots. Update: As of Saturday morning, the strong wind shear that had plagued Gabrielle for days was lessening, and the atmosphere around the storm is expected to gradually moisten into early next week. Top sustained winds remained at 50 mph as of 5 a.m. EDT Saturday. The National Hurricane
Center predicted that Gabrielle would become a hurricane on Sunday, and it could reach Category 2 strength on Monday or Tuesday before wind shear and dry air ramp up dramatically and Gabrielle reaches much cooler waters. Forecast models, including nearly all ensemble members, remain in close agreement that Gabrielle will track at least 100 miles east of Bermuda, putting the islands on the storm’s weaker left-hand side. High surf and swells can be expected, and there is a slight chance that tropical-storm force winds will extend far enough west to affect Bermuda.